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Will lower Brexit uncertainty lead to UK economic growth?

A recent article in Insurance Business has reported that insurance company Euler Hermes predict that the recent Conservative Party landslide victory, and consequent certainty around Brexit, will lead to higher economic growth.

As such, Euler Hermes has revised its 2020 growth forecast for the UK from 0.8% to 1.0% but warns that challenges around striking a trade deal with the European Union and implementing border controls in the Irish sea may still impact the economy. Euler Hermes also said that turning the UK into the “Singapore” of Europe may remain “a pipe dream”. 

Despite the apparent bounce in the housing market this month and the more positive line this article makes about 2020 growth forecasts, it clearly comes with a warning about the challenges that still lie ahead in delivering Brexit.

The feel good factor of a landslide victory in the recent elections has to be balanced with other data and the frontline effects we are still seeing on UK businesses. We feel that 2020 will prove to be another year of challenge with more of the same issues we saw in 2019: –

• Insolvency levels have reached those last seen in 2008/09 and many are predicting these to rise further.
• The unreliability of some accounting practices and issues with publically available financial information.
• Significant volume of large company failures, such as Thomas Cook or companies issuing repeat profit warnings – beware of the unseen event.
• The domino or contagion effect resulting due to the heightened levels of insolvency.

As one of the UK’s leading insurance providers, we offer solutions to protect against insolvency or default exposures. We are here to discuss your specific needs, export related or otherwise.

Read the full Insurance Business article here